USL League One (USA) · Sat, Oct 10 · 21:00 · Portland Hearts of Pine vs AC Boise
Likeliest: AC Boise win · 44%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portland Hearts of Pine29%31%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
AC Boise44%42%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 65% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portland Hearts of Pine
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Oct 4 · at Spokane Velocity FC (A)3-3
- Sep 26 · v Sarasota Paradise (H)1-4
- Sep 19 · at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v AV Alta FC (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · v Westchester SC (H)2-1
AC Boise
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Oct 3 · v Greenville Triumph SC (H)1-0
- Sep 27 · at Corpus Christi FC (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · at Spokane Velocity FC (A)2-2
- Sep 17 · v Charlotte Independence (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v New York Cosmos (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Portland Hearts of Pine | AC Boise |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-6 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.