USL League One (USA) · Sat, Oct 24 · 21:00 · Portland Hearts of Pine vs Charlotte Independence
Likeliest: Charlotte Independence win · 54%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 54% for the away win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Portland Hearts of Pine26%——
OursMarket
Draw20%——
OursMarket
Charlotte Independence54%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 46% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 2.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portland Hearts of Pine
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Forward Madison FC (A)0-2
- Oct 10 · v AC Boise (H)1-2
- Oct 4 · at Spokane Velocity FC (A)3-3
- Sep 26 · v Sarasota Paradise (H)1-4
- Sep 19 · at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (A)1-1
Charlotte Independence
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Greenville Triumph SC (A)3-0
- Oct 10 · v New York Cosmos (H)3-0
- Oct 3 · at Sarasota Paradise (A)3-2
- Sep 26 · v Fort Wayne FC (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Richmond Kickers (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Portland Hearts of Pine | Charlotte Independence |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-7 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.