NWSL (USA) · Sun, Oct 4 · 00:45 · Portland Thorns FC vs Boston Legacy FC
Likeliest: Portland Thorns FC win · 48%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 65% for both teams to score. The market says 59%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portland Thorns FC48%48%0
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Boston Legacy FC27%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 64% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 59% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portland Thorns FC
DrawLossDrawWinDraw
- Sep 27 · v Houston Dash (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Orlando Pride (A)4-1
- Sep 13 · v Chicago Stars FC (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Washington Spirit (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · at NJ/NY Gotham FC (A)1-1
Boston Legacy FC
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Sep 26 · at Seattle Reign FC (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Houston Dash (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Washington Spirit (A)3-0
- Sep 5 · at Utah Royals FC (A)2-1
- Sep 1 · v Angel City FC (H)2-5
| Last 10 games | Portland Thorns FC | Boston Legacy FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-1 | 3-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.