NWSL (USA) · Sun, Sep 27 · 00:45 · Portland Thorns FC vs Houston Dash
Likeliest: Portland Thorns FC win · 65%
A tight one: we make it 65% for the home win. The market says 62%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portland Thorns FC65%62%+3
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
Houston Dash16%17%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 83% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 38% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portland Thorns FC
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Sep 19 · at Orlando Pride (A)4-1
- Sep 13 · v Chicago Stars FC (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Washington Spirit (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · at NJ/NY Gotham FC (A)1-1
- Aug 23 · v Denver Summit FC (H)1-0
Houston Dash
LossLossLossLossWin
- Sep 20 · at Boston Legacy FC (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Utah Royals FC (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Orlando Pride (A)1-3
- Aug 30 · at Seattle Reign FC (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · at Bay FC (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Portland Thorns FC | Houston Dash |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-1 | 2-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.