NWSL (USA) · Sat, Oct 24 · 02:00 · Portland Thorns FC vs North Carolina Courage
Likeliest: North Carolina Courage win · 43%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portland Thorns FC34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
North Carolina Courage43%41%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 46% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 2.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portland Thorns FC
DrawWinDrawLossDraw
- Oct 18 · at Bay FC (A)2-2
- Oct 4 · v Boston Legacy FC (H)2-4
- Sep 27 · v Houston Dash (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Orlando Pride (A)4-1
- Sep 13 · v Chicago Stars FC (H)1-1
North Carolina Courage
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 17 · v San Diego Wave FC (H)1-2
- Oct 3 · at Seattle Reign FC (A)1-0
- Sep 27 · at Utah Royals FC (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v NJ/NY Gotham FC (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at San Diego Wave FC (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Portland Thorns FC | North Carolina Courage |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-2 | 5-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.