Major League Soccer (USA) · Sun, Oct 25 · 02:30 · Portland Timbers vs Charlotte FC
Likeliest: Portland Timbers win · 49%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portland Timbers49%48%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Charlotte FC28%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 72% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 69% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portland Timbers
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 18 · v Colorado Rapids (H)0-0
- Oct 15 · at LA Galaxy (A)0-2
- Oct 11 · at Sporting Kansas City (A)3-3
- Sep 27 · at San Jose Earthquakes (A)1-3
- Sep 20 · v Atlanta United (H)0-1
Charlotte FC
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 17 · at Philadelphia Union (A)2-2
- Oct 14 · at Columbus Crew (A)1-3
- Oct 10 · v FC Dallas (H)3-2
- Sep 26 · v Chicago Fire (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at DC United (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Portland Timbers | Charlotte FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.