Leagues Cup (North & Central America) · Fri, Aug 14 · 02:40 · Portland Timbers vs Club Tijuana
Likeliest: Portland Timbers win · 42%
We make it 43% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portland Timbers42%46%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+2
OursMarket
Club Tijuana32%30%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 64% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 54% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 61% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portland Timbers
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Aug 10 · at Club América (A)1-3
- Aug 7 · v Club Puebla (H)5-2
- Aug 2 · v Seattle Sounders FC (H)2-1
- Jul 26 · v Real Salt Lake (H)2-1
- Jul 23 · v FC Dallas (H)2-2
Club Tijuana
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Aug 10 · at San Diego FC (A)0-1
- Aug 7 · at Austin FC (A)0-2
- Aug 1 · at Atlético San Luis (A)0-0
- Jul 25 · v Club León (H)1-0
- Jul 17 · v Tigres UANL (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Portland Timbers | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.