Major League Soccer (USA) · Sun, Oct 18 · 02:30 · Portland Timbers vs Colorado Rapids
Likeliest: Portland Timbers win · 40%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portland Timbers40%43%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Colorado Rapids33%32%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 63% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 68% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 57% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 57% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portland Timbers
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 15 · at LA Galaxy (A)0-2
- Oct 11 · at Sporting Kansas City (A)3-3
- Sep 27 · at San Jose Earthquakes (A)1-3
- Sep 20 · v Atlanta United (H)0-1
- Sep 13 · at FC Dallas (A)1-2
Colorado Rapids
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Oct 15 · v Minnesota United (H)2-2
- Oct 11 · v San Jose Earthquakes (H)1-1
- Sep 27 · at LA Galaxy (A)2-3
- Sep 20 · v Seattle Sounders FC (H)3-3
- Sep 17 · v St.Louis City (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Portland Timbers | Colorado Rapids |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.