Championship (England) · Sat, May 2 · 11:30 · Portsmouth vs Birmingham City
Likeliest: Portsmouth win · 39%
A 39% home win. The market says 34%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portsmouth39%34%+4
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Birmingham City34%39%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 58% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 61% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 66% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 47% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portsmouth
WinWinWinLossWin
- Apr 25 · at Stoke City (A)3-1
- Apr 21 · at Coventry City (A)1-5
- Apr 18 · v Leicester City (H)1-0
- Apr 14 · v Ipswich Town (H)2-0
- Apr 11 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-0
Birmingham City
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Apr 25 · v Bristol City (H)2-1
- Apr 22 · v Preston North End (H)2-1
- Apr 18 · at Hull City (A)1-1
- Apr 12 · v Wrexham (H)2-0
- Apr 6 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Portsmouth | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.