Championship (England) · Sat, Dec 13 · 15:00 · Portsmouth vs Blackburn Rovers
Likeliest: Portsmouth win · 44%
A 44% home win. The market says 34%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portsmouth44%34%+10
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Blackburn Rovers30%37%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 45% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 63% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 66% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 48% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portsmouth
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Dec 9 · at Swansea City (A)0-1
- Nov 29 · v Bristol City (H)0-1
- Nov 26 · at Sheffield United (A)0-3
- Nov 22 · v Millwall (H)3-1
- Nov 8 · at Hull City (A)2-3
Blackburn Rovers
WinLossDrawDrawDraw
- Dec 9 · v Oxford United (H)1-1
- Dec 2 · v Ipswich Town (H)1-1
- Nov 29 · at Wrexham (A)1-1
- Nov 26 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)0-1
- Nov 21 · at Preston North End (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Portsmouth | Blackburn Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.