Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 19 · 14:00 · Portsmouth vs Blackburn Rovers
Likeliest: Portsmouth win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portsmouth44%46%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+1
OursMarket
Blackburn Rovers26%26%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 53% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portsmouth
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 12 · at Charlton Athletic (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v Cardiff City (H)2-0
- Sep 1 · v Derby County (H)0-2
- Aug 29 · at Bristol City (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Lincoln City (A)3-1
Blackburn Rovers
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 12 · v Millwall (H)3-1
- Sep 8 · v Sheffield United (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Preston North End (A)1-2
- Sep 1 · at Lincoln City (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Portsmouth | Blackburn Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.