Championship (England) · Sat, Nov 29 · 12:30 · Portsmouth vs Bristol City
Likeliest: Portsmouth win · 52%
A 52% home win. The market says 34%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portsmouth52%34%+18
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−2
OursMarket
Bristol City21%37%−16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 63% | +16 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 66% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 48% | +24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portsmouth
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Nov 26 · at Sheffield United (A)0-3
- Nov 22 · v Millwall (H)3-1
- Nov 8 · at Hull City (A)2-3
- Nov 5 · v Wrexham (H)0-0
- Nov 1 · at Birmingham City (A)0-4
Bristol City
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Nov 26 · at Wrexham (A)0-2
- Nov 22 · v Swansea City (H)3-0
- Nov 7 · at Watford (A)1-1
- Nov 4 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)0-1
- Nov 1 · at Stoke City (A)1-5
| Last 10 games | Portsmouth | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.