Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 5 · 14:00 · Portsmouth vs Cardiff City
Likeliest: Portsmouth win · 38%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 55%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portsmouth38%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Cardiff City38%33%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 55% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 67% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 55% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portsmouth
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 1 · v Derby County (H)0-2
- Aug 29 · at Bristol City (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Lincoln City (A)3-1
- Aug 15 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-3
- Aug 8 · at West Ham United (A)1-3
Cardiff City
DrawDrawLossDrawLoss
- Sep 2 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-2
- Aug 29 · v Sheffield United (H)2-2
- Aug 25 · v Norwich City (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Derby County (A)2-2
- Aug 17 · v Wrexham (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Portsmouth | Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.