Championship (England) · Mon, Dec 29 · 19:45 · Portsmouth vs Charlton Athletic
Likeliest: Portsmouth win · 42%
We make it 52% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portsmouth42%41%0
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−4
OursMarket
Charlton Athletic32%29%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 41% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 48% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 58% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portsmouth
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Dec 26 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-1
- Dec 20 · at Derby County (A)1-1
- Dec 13 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)2-1
- Dec 9 · at Swansea City (A)0-1
- Nov 29 · v Bristol City (H)0-1
Charlton Athletic
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Dec 26 · at Norwich City (A)0-1
- Dec 20 · v Oxford United (H)1-0
- Dec 13 · at Birmingham City (A)1-1
- Dec 9 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-2
- Nov 29 · at Coventry City (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Portsmouth | Charlton Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.