Championship (England) · Mon, Mar 16 · 20:00 · Portsmouth vs Derby County
Likeliest: Portsmouth win · 40%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portsmouth40%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw24%30%−5
OursMarket
Derby County35%28%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 43% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 49% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 72% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 70% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 60% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portsmouth
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Mar 10 · v Swansea City (H)1-2
- Mar 7 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-1
- Feb 28 · v Hull City (H)0-1
- Feb 24 · at Wrexham (A)1-2
- Feb 21 · at Millwall (A)3-1
Derby County
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Mar 10 · at Millwall (A)0-1
- Mar 7 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)2-1
- Feb 28 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)3-1
- Feb 24 · at Hull City (A)2-4
- Feb 21 · at Watford (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Portsmouth | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.