Championship (England) · Tue, Sep 1 · 18:45 · Portsmouth vs Derby County
Likeliest: Portsmouth win · 45%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portsmouth45%41%+4
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−4
OursMarket
Derby County31%30%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 48% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 59% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 58% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portsmouth
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Aug 29 · at Bristol City (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Lincoln City (A)3-1
- Aug 15 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-3
- Aug 8 · at West Ham United (A)1-3
- May 2 · v Birmingham City (H)1-1
Derby County
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Aug 29 · v Swansea City (H)0-3
- Aug 22 · v Cardiff City (H)2-2
- Aug 15 · at Charlton Athletic (A)1-2
- Aug 8 · v Lincoln City (H)1-2
- May 2 · v Sheffield United (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Portsmouth | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.