Championship (England) · Sat, Feb 28 · 12:30 · Portsmouth vs Hull City
Likeliest: Portsmouth win · 50%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portsmouth50%46%+4
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Hull City27%27%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 49% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 53% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 54% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 63% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portsmouth
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Feb 24 · at Wrexham (A)1-2
- Feb 21 · at Millwall (A)3-1
- Feb 17 · at Charlton Athletic (A)3-1
- Feb 14 · v Sheffield United (H)0-1
- Feb 7 · at Preston North End (A)0-1
Hull City
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Feb 24 · v Derby County (H)4-2
- Feb 21 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-3
- Feb 13 · v Chelsea (H)0-4
- Feb 7 · v Bristol City (H)2-3
- Feb 3 · v Watford (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Portsmouth | Hull City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.