Championship (England) · Sat, Apr 18 · 11:30 · Portsmouth vs Leicester City
Likeliest: Portsmouth win · 43%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portsmouth43%40%+4
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Leicester City31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 45% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 60% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 56% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portsmouth
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Apr 14 · v Ipswich Town (H)2-0
- Apr 11 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-0
- Apr 6 · v Oxford United (H)2-2
- Apr 3 · at Norwich City (A)1-1
- Mar 21 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-6
Leicester City
LossDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Apr 11 · v Swansea City (H)0-1
- Apr 6 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-1
- Apr 3 · v Preston North End (H)2-2
- Mar 21 · at Watford (A)0-0
- Mar 14 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Portsmouth | Leicester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 1-6-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 1-6-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.