Championship (England) · Sat, Nov 22 · 15:00 · Portsmouth vs Millwall
Likeliest: Portsmouth win · 49%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portsmouth49%37%+12
OursMarket
Draw24%30%−6
OursMarket
Millwall27%33%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 43% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 67% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 63% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 70% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 53% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portsmouth
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Nov 8 · at Hull City (A)2-3
- Nov 5 · v Wrexham (H)0-0
- Nov 1 · at Birmingham City (A)0-4
- Oct 25 · v Stoke City (H)0-1
- Oct 21 · v Coventry City (H)1-2
Millwall
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Nov 8 · v Preston North End (H)1-1
- Nov 4 · at Birmingham City (A)0-4
- Nov 1 · at Oxford United (A)2-2
- Oct 25 · v Leicester City (H)1-0
- Oct 21 · v Stoke City (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Portsmouth | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.