Championship (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 11:30 · Portsmouth vs Millwall
Likeliest: Millwall win · 35%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 35% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portsmouth35%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Millwall35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portsmouth
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Norwich City (A)1-0
- Oct 14 · v Sheffield United (H)3-2
- Oct 11 · at Southampton (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Charlton Athletic (A)0-0
Millwall
DrawDrawDrawLossDraw
- Oct 17 · v Lincoln City (H)2-2
- Oct 13 · v Swansea City (H)0-1
- Oct 10 · at Preston North End (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v West Ham United (H)2-2
- Sep 15 · at Middlesbrough (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Portsmouth | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.