Championship (England) · Mon, Apr 6 · 11:30 · Portsmouth vs Oxford United
Likeliest: Portsmouth win · 42%
A 33% away win. The market says 24%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portsmouth42%48%−6
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Oxford United33%24%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 43% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 48% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 76% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 52% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 67% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portsmouth
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Apr 3 · at Norwich City (A)1-1
- Mar 21 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-6
- Mar 16 · v Derby County (H)0-1
- Mar 10 · v Swansea City (H)1-2
- Mar 7 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-1
Oxford United
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Apr 3 · v Hull City (H)1-1
- Mar 21 · at Southampton (A)0-2
- Mar 14 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-1
- Mar 11 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-0
- Mar 6 · at Preston North End (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Portsmouth | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.