Championship (England) · Fri, Dec 26 · 15:00 · Portsmouth vs Queens Park Rangers
Likeliest: Portsmouth win · 48%
A 48% home win. The market says 33%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portsmouth48%33%+15
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−3
OursMarket
Queens Park Rangers28%39%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 49% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 61% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 67% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 46% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portsmouth
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Dec 20 · at Derby County (A)1-1
- Dec 13 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)2-1
- Dec 9 · at Swansea City (A)0-1
- Nov 29 · v Bristol City (H)0-1
- Nov 26 · at Sheffield United (A)0-3
Queens Park Rangers
LossWinWinLossWin
- Dec 20 · v Leicester City (H)4-1
- Dec 13 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-3
- Dec 9 · v Birmingham City (H)2-1
- Dec 6 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)3-1
- Nov 29 · at Norwich City (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Portsmouth | Queens Park Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Portsmouth form·Queens Park Rangers form·Head-to-head record