Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 15 · 14:00 · Portsmouth vs Queens Park Rangers
Likeliest: Portsmouth win · 50%
A 50% home win. The market says 42%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portsmouth50%42%+8
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−2
OursMarket
Queens Park Rangers25%30%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 70% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 58% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 58% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portsmouth
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Aug 8 · at West Ham United (A)1-3
- May 2 · v Birmingham City (H)1-1
- Apr 25 · at Stoke City (A)3-1
- Apr 21 · at Coventry City (A)1-5
- Apr 18 · v Leicester City (H)1-0
Queens Park Rangers
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Aug 8 · v Millwall (H)1-1
- May 2 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-3
- Apr 25 · v Derby County (H)2-3
- Apr 21 · v Swansea City (H)1-2
- Apr 18 · at Millwall (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Portsmouth | Queens Park Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Portsmouth form·Queens Park Rangers form·Head-to-head record