Championship (England) · Sat, Feb 14 · 15:00 · Portsmouth vs Sheffield United
Likeliest: Portsmouth win · 45%
A 45% home win. The market says 31%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portsmouth45%31%+14
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
Sheffield United31%42%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 48% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 53% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 58% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 69% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 42% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portsmouth
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Feb 7 · at Preston North End (A)0-1
- Jan 31 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)3-0
- Jan 25 · v Southampton (H)1-1
- Jan 21 · at Watford (A)1-1
- Jan 17 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-0
Sheffield United
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Feb 9 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-2
- Feb 3 · v Oxford United (H)3-1
- Jan 31 · at Millwall (A)1-1
- Jan 24 · v Ipswich Town (H)3-1
- Jan 21 · at Southampton (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Portsmouth | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.