Championship (England) · Wed, Oct 14 · 18:45 · Portsmouth vs Sheffield United
Likeliest: Portsmouth win · 36%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portsmouth36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Sheffield United34%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 48% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 53% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portsmouth
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · at Southampton (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Charlton Athletic (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v Cardiff City (H)2-0
- Sep 1 · v Derby County (H)0-2
Sheffield United
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 10 · v Lincoln City (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Stoke City (A)1-2
- Sep 16 · at Fleetwood Town (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Wolverhampton (H)0-1
- Sep 8 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Portsmouth | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.