Championship (England) · Sun, Jan 25 · 12:00 · Portsmouth vs Southampton
Likeliest: Portsmouth win · 50%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portsmouth50%29%+20
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−5
OursMarket
Southampton27%43%−16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 49% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 54% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 57% | +16 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 71% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 41% | +24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portsmouth
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Jan 21 · at Watford (A)1-1
- Jan 17 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-0
- Jan 11 · v Arsenal (H)1-4
- Jan 1 · at Bristol City (A)0-5
- Dec 29 · v Charlton Athletic (H)2-1
Southampton
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Jan 21 · v Sheffield United (H)1-0
- Jan 17 · v Hull City (H)1-2
- Jan 10 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)3-2
- Jan 4 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-4
- Jan 1 · v Millwall (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Portsmouth | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.