Championship (England) · Tue, Mar 10 · 19:45 · Portsmouth vs Swansea City
Likeliest: Portsmouth win · 44%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portsmouth44%44%0
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Swansea City31%28%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 49% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 72% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 62% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portsmouth
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Mar 7 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-1
- Feb 28 · v Hull City (H)0-1
- Feb 24 · at Wrexham (A)1-2
- Feb 21 · at Millwall (A)3-1
- Feb 17 · at Charlton Athletic (A)3-1
Swansea City
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Mar 7 · v Stoke City (H)2-0
- Feb 28 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-3
- Feb 24 · v Preston North End (H)1-1
- Feb 21 · v Bristol City (H)1-0
- Feb 14 · at Derby County (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Portsmouth | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-0-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.