Championship (England) · Tue, Nov 3 · 19:45 · Portsmouth vs Swansea City
Likeliest: Swansea City win · 36%
Likely scores: 1–1 13% · 1–2 10% · 0–0 9%
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portsmouth34%37%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%27%+3
OursMarket
Swansea City36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 56% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 73% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portsmouth
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 31 · at Burnley (A)0-0
- Oct 24 · v Millwall (H)2-1
- Oct 20 · at Wolverhampton (A)1-1
- Oct 17 · at Norwich City (A)1-0
- Oct 14 · v Sheffield United (H)3-2
Swansea City
WinWinLossLossWin
- Oct 31 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)4-0
- Oct 24 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)0-5
- Oct 17 · v West Ham United (H)0-1
- Oct 13 · at Millwall (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Norwich City (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Portsmouth | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.