Championship (England) · Sat, Jan 31 · 15:00 · Portsmouth vs West Bromwich Albion
Likeliest: Portsmouth win · 50%
A 50% home win. The market says 33%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portsmouth50%33%+17
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−5
OursMarket
West Bromwich Albion26%38%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 43% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 50% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 62% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 67% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 47% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portsmouth
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Jan 25 · v Southampton (H)1-1
- Jan 21 · at Watford (A)1-1
- Jan 17 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-0
- Jan 11 · v Arsenal (H)1-4
- Jan 1 · at Bristol City (A)0-5
West Bromwich Albion
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Jan 23 · at Derby County (A)1-1
- Jan 20 · v Norwich City (H)0-5
- Jan 16 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-3
- Jan 11 · at Swansea City (A)2-2
- Jan 5 · at Leicester City (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Portsmouth | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Portsmouth form·West Bromwich Albion form·Head-to-head record