UEFA Nations League · Sun, Oct 4 · 18:45 · Portugal vs Norway
Likeliest: Portugal win · 53%
We make it 69% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 64%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Portugal53%53%0
OursMarket
Draw22%22%+1
OursMarket
Norway25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 64% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 61% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Portugal
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 1 · at Denmark (A)4-2
- Sep 27 · at Norway (A)2-1
- Sep 24 · v Wales (H)1-0
- Jul 6 · v Spain (H)0-1
- Jul 2 · v Croatia (H)2-1
Norway
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 1 · at Wales (A)1-2
- Sep 27 · v Portugal (H)1-2
- Sep 24 · v Denmark (H)3-2
- Jul 11 · v England (H)1-1
- Jul 5 · at Brazil (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Portugal | Norway |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.