Championship (England) · Fri, Nov 21 · 20:00 · Preston North End vs Blackburn Rovers
Likeliest: Preston North End win · 40%
We make it 48% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Preston North End40%38%+1
OursMarket
Draw27%30%−4
OursMarket
Blackburn Rovers34%31%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 41% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 69% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 55% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Preston North End
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Nov 8 · at Millwall (A)1-1
- Nov 5 · v Swansea City (H)2-1
- Nov 1 · at Southampton (A)2-0
- Oct 24 · v Sheffield United (H)3-2
- Oct 21 · v Birmingham City (H)0-1
Blackburn Rovers
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Nov 8 · v Derby County (H)1-2
- Nov 4 · at Bristol City (A)1-0
- Nov 1 · at Leicester City (A)2-0
- Oct 25 · v Southampton (H)2-1
- Oct 21 · v Sheffield United (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Preston North End | Blackburn Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Preston North End form·Blackburn Rovers form·Head-to-head record