Championship (England) · Tue, Sep 1 · 18:45 · Preston North End vs Bristol City
Likeliest: Bristol City win · 38%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Preston North End36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%28%−1
OursMarket
Bristol City38%35%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 50% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 56% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 65% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 52% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Preston North End
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Aug 29 · at Charlton Athletic (A)0-1
- Aug 26 · v Everton (H)0-4
- Aug 22 · v Wolverhampton (H)1-3
- Aug 15 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)1-2
- Aug 8 · v Huddersfield Town (H)1-1
Bristol City
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Aug 29 · v Portsmouth (H)2-1
- Aug 22 · at Birmingham City (A)2-2
- Aug 15 · v Millwall (H)0-2
- Aug 6 · v Walsall (H)0-1
- May 2 · v Stoke City (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Preston North End | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Preston North End form·Bristol City form·Head-to-head record