EFL Cup (England) · Wed, Aug 26 · 19:00 · Preston North End vs Everton
Likeliest: Preston North End win · 42%
We make it 61% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Preston North End42%16%+26
OursMarket
Draw28%22%+6
OursMarket
Everton30%61%−32
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 55% | −17 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 52% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 39% | +32 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 84% | −26 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 78% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 21% | +38 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Preston North End
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Aug 22 · v Wolverhampton (H)1-3
- Aug 15 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)1-2
- Aug 8 · v Huddersfield Town (H)1-1
- May 2 · v Southampton (H)1-3
- Apr 25 · at Sheffield United (A)3-2
Everton
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Aug 22 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-0
- May 24 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)0-1
- May 17 · v Sunderland (H)1-3
- May 10 · at Crystal Palace (A)2-2
- May 4 · v Manchester City (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Preston North End | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.