Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 12 · 14:00 · Preston North End vs Lincoln City
Likeliest: Preston North End win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Preston North End41%41%0
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Lincoln City31%32%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 68% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Preston North End
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 8 · at Watford (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)2-1
- Sep 1 · v Bristol City (H)1-3
- Aug 29 · at Charlton Athletic (A)0-1
- Aug 26 · v Everton (H)0-4
Lincoln City
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 8 · at Bournemouth (A)0-4
- Sep 5 · v Southampton (H)1-1
- Sep 1 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)1-0
- Aug 25 · at Blackpool (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | Preston North End | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.