Championship (England) · Sat, Feb 28 · 15:00 · Preston North End vs Millwall
Likeliest: Preston North End win · 43%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Preston North End43%31%+11
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−5
OursMarket
Millwall34%40%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 45% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 51% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 60% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 69% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 44% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Preston North End
DrawWinDrawLossDraw
- Feb 24 · at Swansea City (A)1-1
- Feb 20 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)0-1
- Feb 14 · v Watford (H)2-2
- Feb 7 · v Portsmouth (H)1-0
- Jan 31 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-1
Millwall
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Feb 25 · v Birmingham City (H)3-0
- Feb 21 · v Portsmouth (H)1-3
- Feb 14 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)2-1
- Feb 7 · at Wrexham (A)2-0
- Jan 31 · v Sheffield United (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Preston North End | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.