Championship (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Preston North End vs Millwall
Likeliest: Millwall win · 39%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Preston North End32%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Millwall39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 48% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Preston North End
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 19 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Lincoln City (H)0-1
- Sep 8 · at Watford (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)2-1
- Sep 1 · v Bristol City (H)1-3
Millwall
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Sep 19 · v West Ham United (H)2-2
- Sep 15 · at Middlesbrough (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-3
- Sep 8 · v Newcastle United (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Preston North End | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.