Championship (England) · Fri, Mar 6 · 20:00 · Preston North End vs Oxford United
Likeliest: Preston North End win · 48%
We make it 52% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Preston North End48%45%+3
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Oxford United26%26%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 43% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 49% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 74% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 55% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 64% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Preston North End
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Feb 28 · v Millwall (H)0-2
- Feb 24 · at Swansea City (A)1-1
- Feb 20 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)0-1
- Feb 14 · v Watford (H)2-2
- Feb 7 · v Portsmouth (H)1-0
Oxford United
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Feb 28 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)2-1
- Feb 25 · at Stoke City (A)1-2
- Feb 21 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-0
- Feb 15 · v Sunderland (H)0-1
- Feb 10 · v Norwich City (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Preston North End | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Preston North End form·Oxford United form·Head-to-head record