Championship (England) · Mon, Apr 6 · 14:00 · Preston North End vs Queens Park Rangers
Likeliest: Preston North End win · 40%
We make it 52% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Preston North End40%39%+1
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−1
OursMarket
Queens Park Rangers33%32%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 46% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 68% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 55% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Preston North End
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Apr 3 · at Leicester City (A)2-2
- Mar 20 · v Stoke City (H)3-1
- Mar 14 · at Norwich City (A)0-2
- Mar 11 · at Coventry City (A)0-3
- Mar 6 · v Oxford United (H)1-3
Queens Park Rangers
LossLossWinWinWin
- Apr 3 · v Watford (H)2-1
- Mar 21 · v Portsmouth (H)6-1
- Mar 14 · at Leicester City (A)3-1
- Mar 11 · at Birmingham City (A)0-1
- Mar 8 · v Middlesbrough (H)0-4
| Last 10 games | Preston North End | Queens Park Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Preston North End form·Queens Park Rangers form·Head-to-head record