Championship (England) · Tue, Nov 3 · 19:45 · Preston North End vs Sheffield United
Likeliest: Sheffield United win · 40%
Likely scores: 1–1 13% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 8%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Preston North End30%33%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%26%+3
OursMarket
Sheffield United40%41%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 67% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 74% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Preston North End
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 31 · at Stoke City (A)0-2
- Oct 24 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-1
- Oct 17 · at Wrexham (A)1-4
- Oct 13 · at Birmingham City (A)0-4
- Oct 10 · v Millwall (H)0-0
Sheffield United
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 30 · v Wrexham (H)1-0
- Oct 24 · v Derby County (H)1-1
- Oct 17 · at Bristol City (A)1-0
- Oct 14 · at Portsmouth (A)2-3
- Oct 10 · v Lincoln City (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Preston North End | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Preston North End form·Sheffield United form·Head-to-head record