Championship (England) · Sat, May 2 · 11:30 · Preston North End vs Southampton
Likeliest: Southampton win · 49%
A tight one: we make it 49% for the away win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Preston North End28%27%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Southampton49%50%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 62% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 35% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Preston North End
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Apr 25 · at Sheffield United (A)3-2
- Apr 22 · at Birmingham City (A)1-2
- Apr 18 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)0-2
- Apr 11 · at Charlton Athletic (A)2-1
- Apr 6 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-1
Southampton
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Apr 28 · v Ipswich Town (H)2-2
- Apr 25 · at Manchester City (A)1-2
- Apr 21 · v Bristol City (H)2-2
- Apr 18 · at Swansea City (A)2-1
- Apr 14 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Preston North End | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.