Championship (England) · Fri, Mar 20 · 20:00 · Preston North End vs Stoke City
Likeliest: Preston North End win · 41%
We make it 52% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Preston North End41%37%+3
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−2
OursMarket
Stoke City32%34%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 46% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 52% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 63% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 53% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Preston North End
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Mar 14 · at Norwich City (A)0-2
- Mar 11 · at Coventry City (A)0-3
- Mar 6 · v Oxford United (H)1-3
- Feb 28 · v Millwall (H)0-2
- Feb 24 · at Swansea City (A)1-1
Stoke City
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Mar 14 · v Watford (H)3-1
- Mar 10 · v Ipswich Town (H)3-3
- Mar 7 · at Swansea City (A)0-2
- Feb 28 · at Coventry City (A)1-2
- Feb 25 · v Oxford United (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Preston North End | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.