Championship (England) · Sat, Feb 14 · 15:00 · Preston North End vs Watford
Likeliest: Preston North End win · 44%
A 44% home win. The market says 30%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Preston North End44%30%+14
OursMarket
Draw27%30%−3
OursMarket
Watford30%40%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 44% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 60% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 70% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 43% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Preston North End
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Feb 7 · v Portsmouth (H)1-0
- Jan 31 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-1
- Jan 24 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-4
- Jan 20 · v Hull City (H)0-3
- Jan 17 · v Derby County (H)0-1
Watford
DrawDrawLossDrawLoss
- Feb 7 · at Southampton (A)0-1
- Feb 3 · at Hull City (A)0-0
- Jan 31 · v Swansea City (H)0-2
- Jan 24 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-1
- Jan 21 · v Portsmouth (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Preston North End | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.