Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 22 · 14:00 · Preston North End vs Wolverhampton
Likeliest: Preston North End win · 50%
We make it 67% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Preston North End50%23%+27
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−2
OursMarket
Wolverhampton26%51%−25
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 53% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 54% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 49% | +25 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 77% | −27 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 31% | +35 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Preston North End
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Aug 15 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)1-2
- Aug 8 · v Huddersfield Town (H)1-1
- May 2 · v Southampton (H)1-3
- Apr 25 · at Sheffield United (A)3-2
- Apr 22 · at Birmingham City (A)1-2
Wolverhampton
DrawDrawDrawWinDraw
- Aug 14 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)2-2
- Aug 7 · v Port Vale (H)3-0
- May 24 · at Burnley (A)1-1
- May 24 · at Burnley (A)1-1
- May 17 · v Fulham (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Preston North End | Wolverhampton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.