Championship (England) · Sat, Dec 6 · 15:00 · Preston North End vs Wrexham
Likeliest: Preston North End win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Preston North End38%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%30%−1
OursMarket
Wrexham33%30%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 43% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 58% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Preston North End
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Nov 29 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)3-2
- Nov 25 · at Watford (A)1-1
- Nov 21 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-2
- Nov 8 · at Millwall (A)1-1
- Nov 5 · v Swansea City (H)2-1
Wrexham
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Nov 29 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-1
- Nov 26 · v Bristol City (H)2-0
- Nov 22 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-0
- Nov 8 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-0
- Nov 5 · at Portsmouth (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Preston North End | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.