3. Liga (Germany) · Wed, Oct 14 · 17:00 · Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
Likeliest: Fortuna Düsseldorf win · 44%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Preußen Münster29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Fortuna Düsseldorf44%42%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 57% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 59% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Preußen Münster
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Oct 9 · v Rot-Weiss Essen (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at SV Waldhof Mannheim (A)0-2
- Sep 16 · v 1. FC Saarbrücken (H)3-3
- Sep 13 · at VfB Stuttgart II U21 (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · v TSV Havelse (H)2-1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 11 · v SC Verl (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at Alemannia Aachen (A)0-1
- Sep 15 · at SSV Jahn Regensburg (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v MSV Duisburg (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at SC Fortuna Köln (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Preußen Münster | Fortuna Düsseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-5-4 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.