DFB Pokal (Germany) · Fri, Aug 21 · 16:00 · Preußen Münster vs Karlsruher SC
Likeliest: Preußen Münster win · 52%
We make it 46% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Preußen Münster52%29%+22
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−3
OursMarket
Karlsruher SC26%45%−19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 63% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 65% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 55% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 71% | −22 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 39% | +27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Preußen Münster
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Aug 15 · v FC Ingolstadt 04 (H)1-1
- Aug 8 · at SV Wehen Wiesbaden (A)3-1
- May 17 · at Elversberg (A)0-3
- May 10 · v Darmstadt 98 (H)1-1
- May 3 · at Hannover 96 (A)3-3
Karlsruher SC
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Aug 15 · at 1. FC Kaiserslautern (A)0-0
- Aug 8 · v Arminia Bielefeld (H)2-1
- May 17 · v VfL Bochum 1848 (H)1-2
- May 8 · at Paderborn (A)2-2
- May 3 · v Darmstadt 98 (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Preußen Münster | Karlsruher SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-5-5 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.