3. Liga (Germany) · Fri, Oct 9 · 17:00 · Preußen Münster vs Rot-Weiss Essen
Likeliest: Rot-Weiss Essen win · 51%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 51% for the away win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Preußen Münster24%27%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Rot-Weiss Essen51%48%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 63% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 52% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 36% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 2.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Preußen Münster
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 20 · at SV Waldhof Mannheim (A)0-2
- Sep 16 · v 1. FC Saarbrücken (H)3-3
- Sep 13 · at VfB Stuttgart II U21 (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · v TSV Havelse (H)2-1
- Aug 30 · at FC Viktoria Köln (A)1-4
Rot-Weiss Essen
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 20 · v F.C. Hansa Rostock (H)1-1
- Sep 16 · at SV Waldhof Mannheim (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v FC Würzburger Kickers (H)6-2
- Sep 5 · v FC Viktoria Köln (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at SV Wehen Wiesbaden (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Preußen Münster | Rot-Weiss Essen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.