3. Liga (Germany) · Sun, Oct 25 · 15:30 · Preußen Münster vs SC Fortuna Köln
Likeliest: Preußen Münster win · 43%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Preußen Münster43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
SC Fortuna Köln29%30%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Preußen Münster
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (A)2-3
- Oct 14 · v Fortuna Düsseldorf (H)1-2
- Oct 9 · v Rot-Weiss Essen (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at SV Waldhof Mannheim (A)0-2
- Sep 16 · v 1. FC Saarbrücken (H)3-3
SC Fortuna Köln
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 16 · v VfB Stuttgart II U21 (H)0-1
- Oct 13 · at Rot-Weiss Essen (A)0-2
- Oct 10 · v 1. FC Saarbrücken (H)0-0
- Sep 25 · at TSV Havelse (A)0-0
- Sep 16 · v SV Wehen Wiesbaden (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Preußen Münster | SC Fortuna Köln |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-5-4 | 1-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.