Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Oct 25 · 19:45 · PSG vs Olympique Lyonnais
Likeliest: PSG win · 74%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 74% for the home win. The market says 70%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PSG74%70%+4
OursMarket
Draw15%17%−2
OursMarket
Olympique Lyonnais11%13%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 71% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 59% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 26% | 30% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 84% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PSG
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · at RC Strasbourg (A)3-1
- Oct 14 · at Manchester City (A)4-2
- Oct 10 · v Le Mans (H)3-1
- Sep 20 · at Olympique de Marseille (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · at Stade Brestois (A)1-0
Olympique Lyonnais
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Nice (H)2-1
- Oct 15 · v Crystal Palace (H)3-2
- Oct 9 · at RC Lens (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Stade Rennais (H)4-0
- Sep 16 · at RSC Anderlecht (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | PSG | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-1 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.