Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Oct 9 · 18:00 · PSV Eindhoven vs SC Heerenveen
Likeliest: PSV Eindhoven win · 79%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 79% for the home win. The market says 76%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PSV Eindhoven79%76%+3
OursMarket
Draw12%13%−2
OursMarket
SC Heerenveen9%11%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 89% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 21% | 24% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 88% | 87% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 90% | 88% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PSV Eindhoven
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Sep 20 · at FC Twente (A)2-3
- Sep 13 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)4-1
- Sep 10 · v Shakhtar Donetsk (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at AFC Ajax (A)3-1
- Aug 30 · at FC Utrecht (A)6-1
SC Heerenveen
LossDrawLossDrawWin
- Sep 19 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)4-0
- Sep 13 · v SC Telstar (H)0-0
- Sep 6 · v AZ Alkmaar (H)2-3
- Aug 30 · at Willem II Tilburg (A)2-2
- Aug 22 · v PEC Zwolle (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | PSV Eindhoven | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.